Dr. John Fleming, Julia Letlow Race Appears Neck and Neck in First Poll

In the first statewide poll since the May 16 Republican primary for United States Senate, Julia Letlow holds a narrow lead over Dr. John Fleming in the runoff scheduled for June 27.

According to JMC Analytics and Polling, a firm which represents Republican candidates, Letlow leads 45 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 3.9 percent, which makes the race a virtual dead heat.

Here are details of the poll, according to JMC Analytics:

U.S. Senate Republican 

Primary Runoff Poll Results

 METHODOLOGY

•Likely Republican runoff voters in Louisiana, conducted May 18-19, 2026 (3.9% MOE with 95% confidence interval)

•Sample size: 640 (73% cell phones (texted), 27% landlines/cells (live dialed) – “hybrid” poll)

•Race/party: 93% white, 4% black, 3% “Other”/80% Republican, 20% Unaffiliateds

•Gender: 51% female, 49% male

•Geography (Nielsen media market): Alexandria 6%, Baton Rouge 21%, Lafayette 16%, Lake Charles 5%, Monroe 9%, New Orleans 32%, Shreveport 11% .

POLL RESULTS

  If the Republican runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you support? (Includes undecided “leaners”)

Julia Letlow 45%

John Fleming44%

Undecided11%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Fleming?

Very favorable23%

Somewhat favorable22%

Somewhat unfavorable13%

Very unfavorable12%

Heard of John, have no 

opinion 25%

Never heard of John6%

TOTAL FAVORABLE: 45%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE:25%

NET FAVORABLE: +20%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Julia Letlow?

Very favorable 27%

Somewhat favorable22%

Somewhat unfavorable17%

Very unfavorable22%

Heard of Julia, have no 

opinion 10%

Never heard of Julia 3%

TOTAL FAVORABLE: 49%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE:39%

NET FAVORABLE: +10%

Source: JMC Analytics