Fleming Takes Lead in Senate Race, Letlow Still Competitive, Cassidy Facing Headwinds

A new Quantus Insights survey of 1,428 likely Republican primary voters, including unaffiliated voters who historically participate in GOP primaries, conducted Feb. 23–24, ±2.8% MoE, reveals an electorate that remains overwhelmingly loyal to President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Senator Bill Cassidy faces entrenched opposition within his own party’s primary base. The cross-tabs can be found at the firm’s interactive website, quantusinsights.org.

The Ballot Today

If the Republican primary were held today, Republicans and Republican-leaning Unaffiliated voters would vote as follows:

• John Fleming: 34.2%

• Julia Letlow: 24.6%

• Bill Cassidy: 19.8%

• Undecided: 21.3%

Fleming leads statewide and performs especially well among voters aged 45–64 (38.4%). Letlow shows strength among the youngest voters (42.9% among ages 18–29). Cassidy performs comparatively better among unaffiliated voters (28.7%) and in urban areas (25.6%), but trails overall.

The Runoff Dynamics

In a Fleming vs. Cassidy runoff:

• Fleming: 57.4%

• Cassidy: 23.3%

In a Letlow vs. Cassidy runoff:

• Letlow: 48.3%

• Cassidy: 26.8%

In a Fleming vs. Letlow runoff:

• Fleming: 42.4%

• Letlow: 32.2%

Nearly 47.6% of respondents say they are primarily looking to replace Bill Cassidy, with someone else. 21.8% are open to replacing him depending on the alternative. Cassidy’s combined unfavorable rating stands at 66.3%, including 46.8% very unfavorable.

The Anti-Incumbent Current

If their preferred candidate fails to reach a runoff:

• 37.4% would vote for whoever is running against Bill Cassidy

• 17.1% would vote for Cassidy

This suggests consolidated resistance within the electorate.

The Trump Factor

President Trump maintains overwhelming approval:

• Strongly approve: 62.4%

• Somewhat approve: 21.5%

• Combined approval: 83.9%

Ideologically:

• 38.7% strongly align with MAGA/America First

• 18.9% generally align with MAGA principles

• 25.6% identify as traditional conservative Republicans

However, only 19.9% say Trump’s endorsement would be “very important” in deciding their vote, while 27.3% say it is “not important at all.”

The Profile of the Poll

• 86% Registered Republican

• 47.1% Age 65+

• 41.6% Age 45–64

• 86.1% White

• Even gender split

• 36.9% Rural, 35.2% Suburban, 21.8% Urban

The Bottom Line

John Fleming currently consolidates the anti-incumbent vote. Julia Letlow remains competitive. Bill Cassidy faces structural headwinds among a base that appears increasingly ready for change. The defining question is not ideology but new direction. Louisiana Republicans remain loyal to President Trump. But on the question of Senate representation, many appear prepared to turn the page.