Numbers in Race For Mayor Look Favorable for Sid In Dec. 7 Runoff

The political class in East Baton Rouge Parish has been fond of saying lately that it is “impossible” for a Republican to win the race for Mayor-President.  That’s an amazing statement considering the results of the election last fall:

•Republican Nancy Landry carried EBR last fall for Secretary of State with 54 percent.

•Republican Liz Murrell carried EBR for Attorney General with 53 percent.

•Republican Dr. John Fleming carried EBR for Treasurer with 52 percent.

A close look at voter registration is even more revealing.

East Baton Rouge Parish has

•140,871 white voters

•127,392 black voters

•18,488 other race voters

We know voters in this parish generally vote along racial lines but not 100 percent.

My crystal ball says Coach Sid runs strong with 140,871 white voters and enjoys some crossover support. 

On the other hand, Sharon Broome and Ted James fight for their share of the smaller group of 127,392.  

Coach Sid runs a strong first and faces Sharon in the runoff.

The reason Sharon makes the runoff ahead of Ted is that the overwhelming majority of Democratic voters are female and are much more likely to support Sharon.

The runoff between Coach Sid and Sharon on Dec. 7 will be a dogfight.  Turnout will be everything.

When Sen. Bodi White was in the runoff with Sharon in 2016, Central did not do its job.  Turnout was very low.  For Coach Sid to win in December, turnout in Central and St. George will need to be above average.

At that same election, St. George will vote on transferring the 2 percent parish tax to the City of St. George.  Thus, turnout in St. George should be enhanced.

So the question is, what do the numbers tell us?  They tell us Coach Sid is very likely to make the Dec. 7 runoff against Sharon, and turnout will be the key to that election.