EBR Not ‘The Promised Land’ for Dems

By Woody Jenkins, Editor, Central City News – Baton Rouge

When Sharon Weston Broome was elected Mayor-President in 2016 over Sen. Bodi White, the Baton Rouge Advocate declared, “The Red Stick has turned blue.”  The end is near for Republicans, they said.

Many were expecting a Democratic sweep in the next few elections, and yet that sweep has not materialized.

In fact, the results of the Oct. 14, 2023, election left the “experts” doubting their analysis of politics in the parish.  Indeed, East Baton Rouge Parish has not become the new “promised land” for the Democratic Party. Rather, Republicans are stronger than ever in the parish.

On Nov, 16, 2019, John Bel Edwards received 66 percent of the vote for Governor in East Baton Rouge Parish. On Oct. 14, 2023, Republican candidates for Governor won 51.8 percent of the vote in the parish — a remarkable turnaround.

The Big Test for Republicans. In late 2022, Republicans in East Baton Rouge Parish began focusing on reelecting their four parishwide Republican officials:

•Sheriff Sid Gautreaux

•Assessor Brian Wilson

•Clerk of Court Doug Welborn

•Coroner Dr. Beau Clark

Republican leaders felt confident about the Governor’s race but knew the real test would come on whether conservative Republicans would continue to control of the “big four” constitutional offices in the parish.

Party leaders went to work.

Democrats Forfeited. By the time of qualifying Aug. 8-10, 2023, the dye was cast.  Republican had a grassroots organizations in place and were ready for battle.  The Democrats, on the other hand, quietly forfeited the game.  They were unable even to find credible candidates for Sheriff, Assessor, or Coroner.  

Assessor Brian Wilson and Coroner Beau Clark were elected without opposition.  Sheriff Sid Gautreaux faced a No Party candidate.  On Oct. 14, the sheriff won with 85.8 percent of the vote.  Not only was he strong with Republican voters, but he was supported by all but three traditionally Democratic black organizations in the parish. 

Republicans Focused on Clerk of Court. That left only Republican Clerk of Court Doug Welborn with serious opposition, which allowed the Republican Party to focus on his reelection. In 2019, Welborn was opposed by Democratic Metro Council member Donna Collins-Lewis.  Welborn won that race 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent. With the changing demographics of the parish, many thought Welborn would be headed for defeat this year.  

Republicans Sweep Parishwide Offices. On Oct. 14, 2023, Welborn’s strong job performance as Clerk of Court and a united Republican Party led to his defeating Donna Collins-Lewis once again.  This time, his vote was stronger.  He won with 56.8 percent.

Republicans Also Won Every Statewide Race in EBR. The results in East Baton Rouge Parish for statewide races were also striking.

In every case, Republicans won every statewide race on the ballot in the parish and actually increased their percentage of the vote compared to 2019.

In the race for Lt. Governor, Republican Billy Nungesser received 56.6 percent of the vote in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2019 but 68.8 percent in 2023.

In the race for Secretary of State, in 2019, Republicans candidates won 47.7 percent of the vote in East Baton Rouge Parish, but 52.4 percent this year.

For Attorney General, in 2019, incumbent Jeff Landry received 51.8 percent of the vote in the parish.   However, in 2023, Liz Murrill and two other Republican candidates received 54.6 percent of the vote in the parish.

Finally, for Treasurer, in 2019, Republican John Shroeder received 47.2 percent of the vote in the parish, but in 2023 Republican candidates for Treasurer received 52.9 percent of the vote in East Baton Rouge Parish.

A Smashing Victory. Overall, the Oct. 14, 2023 election was a smashing victory for Republicans and conservatives in East Baton Rouge Parish.

Since 2016 when Sharon Weston Broome was elected Mayor-President and pundits declared EBR a Democratic parish, white voter registration in the parish has declined by 10,247 voters. Black voter registration has declined by 672, and other races have grown by 3,113. 

                  2016        2023

•White151,001140,754

•Black127,689126,963

•Other14,63717,750

Yet, despite the loss in white voters, Republicans in the parish are stronger than they have ever been.

The numbers show once again that voter registration is not nearly as important as voter turnout.  Candidates who identify their voters and motivate them to go to the polls win elections.  Democratic voters stayed home in 2023.

Looming over all these numbers is the incorporation of the City of St George.  Many political leaders believe that once the new city is in place, tens of thousands of Republican voters will return to East Baton Rouge Parish from Livingston and Ascension parishes.  The expectation is that St. George will offer safe neighborhoods and good public schools, making it an attractive alternative and drawing people to EBR.

The political significance of such a migration could be profound.

The City of St. George was approved by voters in 2019. However, Mayor-President Sharon Weston Broome and others sued to enjoin the city’s operations. Since then, the matter has been tied up in court, and the city has not gone into effect.

St. George leaders have said they plan to make sure the city comes into being in 2024.