Vote on St. George Brought Out Voters, Changed Trajectory of EBR Parish

On Nov. 8, 2016, Donald Trump carried Louisiana with 58 percent of the vote — a landslide by any measure. However, in East Baton Rouge Parish, the results were very different, as Hillary Clinton carried the parish by more than 18,000 votes.

Political observers could see that the parish’s politics were finally catching up with the parish’s changing demographics.

Many began to think that East Baton Rouge Parish had turned solidly blue and that Republicans were likely to be swept out of office in the 2019 parishwide elections.

In early 2017, the parish’s six parishwide officials consisted of two Democrats and four Republicans:

Democrats:

•Mayor-President Sharon Wes-ton Broome

•District Atty. Hillar Moore

Republicans

•Sheriff Sid Gautreaux

•Assessor Brian Wilson

•Clerk of Court Doug Welborn

•Coroner Dr. Beau Clark

The question was, could any of the Republican parishwide elected officials survive the 2019 elections?

Picking the Targets

Polling by both Democrats and Republicans showed Welborn and Clark had potential reelection problems and possibly Wilson.

However, Democratic leaders saw that Sheriff Sid Gautreaux was strong in the African American community and would be tough if not impossible to beat. They decided to pick their targets and the Sheriff was not among them.

Two Were Too Formidable

When qualifying came in early August 2019, Democrats took another look. Sheriff Gautreaux and Assessor Brian Wilson drew lesser known Democratic opponents. Many Democratic leaders realized that not only Gautreaux but also Wilson would be difficult to defeat.

Clerk of Court Doug Welborn and Coroner Beau Clark drew more formidable opponents.  Metro Councilwoman Donna Collins-Lewis, a Democrat, filed to run against Welborn, while Dr. Rani Whitfield, known as the “hip hop doctor,” filed against Dr. Clark for Coroner.

Divisions Apparent

As the election unfolded, divisions among Democrats became apparent. Nowhere were those differences more apparent than in two high-profile State Senate races. 

Former Sen. Cleo Fields and Rep. Pat Smith battled it out in Senate District 14 in a race that turned somewhat bitter. In Senate District 15, Sen. Regina Barrow had to defend her seat against well-known activist Gary Chambers. The unity among African American candidates and organizations that had characterized much of recent political history was gone.

Councilwoman Donna Collins-Lewis’ candidacy for Clerk of Court ran into difficulties from the beginning. Her challenge of Rep. Denise Marcelle in 2015 was still fresh in the minds of some, along with her husband’s challenge to school board member Evelyn Ware-Jackson in 2018. 

The bitterness spilled over into her challenge of Doug Welborn. While she received the Democratic and other endorsements she needed, there was in fact a pointed lack of enthusiasm for her candidacy among some Democratic elected officials.

As one Democratic official said, “We need to challenge the incumbent, but this is not the right candidate to do it.”

Some of the bitterness also became evident at the Council on Aging, a nonprofit organization funded by a parishwide property tax and a hotbed of support for Democratic candidates. Councilwoman Donna Collins-Lewis was removed from the COA board. While COA officials said they supported her candidacy, their support was muted. Rep. Marcelle is treasurer of COA and serves on the COA board.

The hot race in Senate District 14 between Cleo Fields and Pat Smith also caused tension at COA.

In the Coroner’s race, white liberals, who had supported Hillary Clinton and Sharon Weston Broome in 2016, had nothing against Coroner Dr. Beau Clark. As a result, he only needed a few African American votes to win reelection — or a massive turnout among conservative whites.

National Politics

Gov. John Bel Edwards played an important role in what happened in East Baton Rouge Parish on Oct. 12.  So did national politics.

While Louisiana Republicans were fired up because of Democratic and media attacks on President Trump, the Democratic base in Louisiana was little more than half-hearted in their support of the governor. 

Gov. Edwards campaigned hard that he was pro-gun, pro-law enforcement, and pro-military. That worked in helping him pick up a small slice of the conservative vote in the state but it de-motivated his liberal supporters and some African American voters. 

He was on the horns of a dilemma. In East Baton Rouge Parish, his decision to campaign as a conservative muted some of his Afri-

can American support.

However, it was a seemingly innocuous decision he made in the spring that had the most dramatic effect on the vote in East Baton Rouge Parish. By law, the governor had the obligation to call a special election on the incorporation of St. George. He had several options. Unfortunately for him, he chose to call the election for Oct. 12 — the very day he would be running for reelection.

Massive spending in opposition to St. George insured that whenever it was held, it would draw a huge turnout,.

That is exactly what happened. 

Four years ago, 39 percent of East Baton Rouge voters turned out for governor.

However, this year, in St. George, 59 percent of voters turned out!  

St. George has 54,000 voters and only 6,000 are African American. The opposition to St. George was bringing to the polls the most conservative voters in the parish.

Statewide, Republicans and white voters turned out in near record numbers while the turnout among Democrats and African American voters was ordinary at best. It was the exact opposite of four years ago when Democrats and African Americans turned out more heavily than Republicans and whites.

Many pundits attribute the high turnout among conservative voters to support for President Trump. It was a way for them to demonstrate their support for him — by going to the polls and voting.

The President held a massive rally in Lake Charles before the Oct. 12 primary. He endorsed the two Republican candidates for governor and made a point of strongly opposing Edwards’ reelection.

Before the election, the Edwards camp had polls showing the governor winning outright with 52 percent of the vote. But polls have become less and less reliable, and they cannot adequately gauge enthusiasm of voters to actually show up on election day and vote.

In the end, Gov. Edwards received only 47 percent of the vote and was forced into a runoff with Eddie Rispone, a Baton Rouge businessman who has never been in politics and has no record to attack. He also has a formidable warchest and doesn’t have to spend his time and resources chasing the dollar like the ordinary candidate.

Some pundits are giving Rispone the edge to defeat the incumbent governor on Nov. 16.

The results of the Oct. 12 election in Baton Rouge were nothing short of stunning in the parishwide races.  While a few years ago, Democrats had been predicted to sweep all four parishwide offices — sheriff, assessor, clerk of court, and coroner — they ended up losing all four and only being competitive in two. For those two — clerk of court and coroner — election night held big surprises. Both Clerk of Court Doug Welborn and Coroner Beau Clark had solid victories.

However, a close analysis of the precinct-by-precinct returns shows that the high turnout in St. George provided both Doug Welborn and Beau Clark their margin of victory or very close to it.

Now Republicans have four years to register their voters and further heighten interest in election day politics. The Presidential election of 2020 should give both parties the opportunity to build their organizations and hone their skills.

Local Democrats have yet to find a Presidential candidate they can rally around, while East Baton Rouge Parish Republicans are united in their support of President Trump.

As this is written, we are in the midst of Early Voting for the Nov. 16 runoff election. The first few days of Early Voting are the exact opposite of what happened in the primary. Once again, Early Voting is setting new records, but this time for the Democratic side. This time, a powerful Democratic tide may be sweeping the parish — too late to affect parishwide offices but possibly affecting statewide totals.

Looming over everything in parish politics is St. George. Will safe neighborhoods and good schools, which the promoters of St. George promise, result in middle income working people who vote Republican returning to the parish. If so, how many and when?

The answer to that question may well decide the future of the parish. Will it veer strongly to the left or maintain its path down the middle?

Time and those who work to make a difference will decide.