Judge Hughes Has Slight Edge 44-37 As Runoff for Supreme Court Nears

Will Inner City Of Baton Rouge Offset Central’s Vote on Dec. 8?

BATON ROUGE — A poll of 604 likely voters conducted Nov. 18 showed Judge Jeff Hughes with a slight edge over Judge John Michael Guidry in the runoff for the Louisiana Supreme Court on Dec. 8

The poll was conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling, a firm owned by Baton Rouge pollster and political consultant John Convillon.

Respondents were asked the following question:

Question 1

If the election for Louisiana Supreme Court were held today, which candidate would you support?

Jeff Hughes (R) 44%

John Guidry (D) 37%

Undecided 19%

Those voters who said they were undecided were asked the following question:

Question 2

Since you are undecided, which candidate are you leaning towards supporting?

Jeff Hughes 55%

John Guidry 45%

Respondents were also asked about their likelihood of voting Dec. 8 with the following results:

Question 3

How likely are you to vote in the Dec. 8 runoff?

Early vote 25%

Election day 70%

Unlikely   5%

The demographic breakdown of respondents was 67 percent white, 31 percent black, and 2 percent other.  The party registration of respondents was 49 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 19 percent Independent or other.

The geographic breakdown was Ascension Parish, 14 percent; Baker, 3 percent; Central, 4 percent; Choctaw area of Baton Rouge, 4 percent; East Feliciana, 3 percent; Garden District, 5 percent; Highlands Road-Perkins area, 8 percent; Iberville Parish, 4 percent; inner city of Baton Rouge, 12 percent; Livingston Parish, 16 percent; Pointe Coupee, 3 percent, Southeast Baton Rouge, 16 percent; West Baton Rouge, 3 percent, and West Feliciana, 1 percent.

Couvillon said the margin of error, with 95 percent confidence was 4.0 percent.  He said that the race appears to be about who turns out to vote.  “A large turnout in Hughes’ base area of Central, Livingston, Ascension, and Southeast Baton Rouge will be necessary for Hughes to overcome a lead that Guidry will build up in the inner city,”